Russian Nuclear Developments, Global Strike and Missile Defense Lecture
Mark Schneider
By Eileen Jorns

Summary

• Russia maintains legacy Soviet systems.
• SS-19, SS-25, SSN-23
• Russia has not modernized these old systems because they are focused on completely new development of missiles.
• Two Phases of Russian Missile Programs:
• Yeltsin Program (Originate d in the ‘90s)
  Will reach deployment by end of 2012
• Announced after new START Treaty
   -3 New ICBMs (formally announced)
   -About to deploy SOBM war A class of subs
   -Just signed contract for five new subs (totaling 8 subs)
   -Blackjack Heavy Bomber
  Most Dangerous:
  New Heavy ICBM (formally announced)
      -Operational by 2018 
      -Smaller than SS-18 but more destructive
      -Can carry 10 heavy or 15 medium warheads
  New Medium ICBM (formally announced Dec 2011)
      -100 ton ICBM
      -Conventional warhead option
• These nuclear developments contradict what we, the U.S., are doing, which is no modernization for 20 years.
• New ICBM:
   -BBC called it Russia’s “Secret Missile” 
   -Russian minister referenced it as “classified”
   -Russia has not announced a name, designator or released photos of launcher
   -There is no reason for this amount of secrecy from Russia.  This behavior strongly   
     contradicts their tendency to brag about new missiles for clout. 
   -Possibly the reason for secrecy is because of a compliance issue. 
   -Possibly a survival of Soviet pseudo-IRBM? 
   -Designed for targeting Europe but disguised as ICBM
• Russian Compliance: Substantial Issues
• Range of “secret missile” said to exceed 500 km (violated INF Treaty)
  2007 Missile
• Ground-launched cruise missile
• After launch, blackout of reports (no media covering it)
• Range said to be 1000-3000  km (Clearly a treaty violation)
• Name of designer kept classified
• Additional reports of Russia’s Nuclear Development:
• Reports surface that Russian missile systems have second role as attack ground targets with missile capabilities
• 2011 Russian Navy Announced:
• SSM-23 Sineva(SOBM) now operational
• Can carry 4 heavy or 9-12 warheads
• “Avante-Garde” ICBM ( no more information on it)
• In 2011, Russian government announced increased production of ICBMS
• Putin declared 400 new ICBMs in over 10 years
• May 2011 force to be 98% modernized by 2021
• A super mini warhead is being designed
• By 2016 new warheads will be put on versions of SS-27
• Kh-102 Long range nuclear weapon
     -5000 km range with stealth capabilities
     -Announced operational
• Russian Missile defense equipped with advanced penetration aids
• We cannot rely on the START Treaty.  We cannot rely on it to do too much. 
• Very little quantitative limits in Treaty.
     -Does not include provisions for rare-mobile ICBMs
• Russia introduces new and advanced nuclear weapons.
     -The Russian buildup of weapons is totally unlike U.S. stockpile approach
     -Russia has stockpile of nuclear weapons 10x as large as U.S.
     -Between 2,000-4,000 nuclear weapons 
     -The number of new weapons Russia possesses is not the only concern but that they have
       maintained almost their entire soviet nuclear weapon stockpile as well.
• 4th Generation Submarine
     -Reported as carrying long range submarine missile
• Russian Developed Nuclear Doctrine
• Allows for nuclear use in regional and local wars on a pre-emptive strike basis
• Russia has characterized the use of weapons as being for “De-escalation of conflict”
• Began to make high level nuclear threats to U.S., Allies and the world. 
• Threats of preventive attacks
     -Nuclear capable bombers
     -(Threats only for political intimidation)
• Concern: A whole new generation of Russian military leaders has heard use of nuclear weapons to solve issues by their senior officials in ways western leaders would never. 

Questions and Answer:

• What’s behind the buildup of weapons?
• 19th Century Worldview by Russia
  Putin sees restoration of Soviet Union in Russian dominance
  They don’t have much going for them.  Their economy is about the size of Spain’s. 
  Paranoia- They don’t understand the West very well.  This paranoia is engendered in the people. 
  They are not capable of maintaining a modern, military capable of non-nuclear strikes
  95% of budget goes into nuclear procurement. 
• U.S. vs. Russian View of Weapons
• Russia is trying to threaten the use of nuclear weapons in ways the West never would. 
  If conflict arises, Russia would rather resort to nuclear weapons than lose. 
  (If they had lost in Georgia, they might have resorted to nuclear weapons)
• What limits are in START Treaty?
• No new START limit- the limit is what Russia wants it to be. 
  By 2025 the US will have no new weapon system that we don’t have today.  While Russia will have developed all of their new weapons in their programs.
  US designers aren’t designing missiles- they have become analysts.  A huge asymmetry exists between US and Russian missile pursuits. 
  US will have a declining level of expertise across the board unless we start funding modernization.  
  By 2020, Russia will have 10 battalions of S-500s.  Russia, by 2020, will have 10x the amount of missile defense interceptors than the U.S.  And they are designed against the U.S.